Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.1%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète18 mai 25, 21:34 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsJoe Biden dies from prostate cancer?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Joe Biden die?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Will he die, specifically because of prostate cancer, by the end of 2027? If he dies of a combination of factors including prostate cancer, resolves YES.
- Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If prostate cancer is a major contributing factor to death, the market resolves YES.
- This includes cases where prostate cancer or its treatment causes increased susceptibility to another condition that is the immediate cause of death.
