KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
$40 trillion 100%+0.4ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Qualité du marché
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
181,4 €
Liquidité
33,7 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
16 juil. 26, 20:45 UTC31 mars 29, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US national debt surpass 42 trillion during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRègles
If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:FRED
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 42.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt increases to 45 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 47.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt increases to 50 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 52.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- Jon Ossoff16%
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- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
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- Naftali Bennett8.3%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration ?
- Kalshi cote $40 trillion à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration sera-t-il résolu ?
- Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration doit être résolu le 31 mars 2029.
- Comment Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.