Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.3%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 02:50 UTC2 janv. 30, 03:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Netanyahu be imprisoned?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman become the CEO of Microsoft by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiWhat will Sam Altman say during NYT DealBook Summit?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is incarcerated in a correctional facility due to a criminal conviction by the resolution date. "Incarcerated" is defined as being held in a jail or prison following a sentence or remand.
- If he is not imprisoned, or if charges are dismissed, dropped, or result in a non-custodial sentence (such as probation or fines only), the market resolves to "No."
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The New York Times) confirming the imprisonment will serve as the source of truth for resolution.
- Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI.
- This market tracks public information regarding his legal status.
