Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.2%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 02:50 UTC2 janv. 30, 03:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman become the CEO of Microsoft by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is incarcerated in a correctional facility due to a criminal conviction by the resolution date. "Incarcerated" is defined as being held in a jail or prison following a sentence or remand.
- If he is not imprisoned, or if charges are dismissed, dropped, or result in a non-custodial sentence (such as probation or fines only), the market resolves to "No."
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The New York Times) confirming the imprisonment will serve as the source of truth for resolution.
- Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI.
- This market tracks public information regarding his legal status.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria