If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Politique américaineOne-OffCriminalité et justice3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 71.7%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 45 minutes
En retard15 août 23, 15:53 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI be useful, but not really change the world... by 2030 ?!
Manifold MarketsWhich celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Manifold MarketsWill Netanyahu be imprisoned?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030
Manifold MarketsMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketJack Doherty Prison Time?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
- Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
- Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
- This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
