If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
US PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 71.7%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète15 août 23, 15:53 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
- Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
- Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
- This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 72% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.