Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2031 87.7%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète17 mars 24, 17:06 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman become the CEO of Microsoft by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
Kalshi7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
[image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%
- If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES.
- If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.
- If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.
- Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march) - 70%+ swings - 4+ times - The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours.
- If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%. - the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market. - the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings - the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity
Marchés ouverts
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Volume total
- 4,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,6 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- CALC76.7%
- BSHE+1.0pt23.3%
- Volume total
- 459,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 459,8 k €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro Quarter Finals match
- Jessica Pegula76.7%
- Emma Navarro23.3%
- Volume total
- 123,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 384,9 k €
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.6pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,250 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,500 or above97%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 161,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 158,1 k €
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What chain will LAPTOP launch on?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2031 à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%