Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.7%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète4 déc. 25, 01:23 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRègles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021–present)
- This market resolves YES if Myanmar's military junta (the State Administration Council/SAC led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing) is overthrown or ceases to hold effective control of the country before January 1, 2030.
- Overthrow includes scenarios where the junta is forced from power through military defeat, internal collapse, or negotiated transition.
- The junta must lose control of the capital (Naypyidaw) and be unable to exercise governmental authority over any of Myanmar's major population centers.
- Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources and statements from the National Unity Government or successor authorities.
- This market resolves NO if the junta remains in power through January 1, 2030.
