Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffScience1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.1%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète11 avr. 26, 23:36 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Chicken-Free Egg Whites is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 57,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7 k €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 153,9 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume total
- 286,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.