Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.3%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète29 mars 26, 22:23 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
this includes testing and warfare
- the last nuclear test was conducted by North Korea on September 3, 2017, as part of a underground detonation
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,6 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,5 k €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : this includes testing and warfare