Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 15:57 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Manifold Marketswill a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030.
- For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof).
- The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.
- If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.
- As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Marchés ouverts
Commodities
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 395,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 395,6 k €
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 198,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 198,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 78,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 78,5 k €
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Brent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 8, 2026
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Pennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria