Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.6%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète7 sept. 23, 11:31 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a dirty bomb be used in an attack before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRadiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30
Manifold MarketsWill there be a credible threat of a dirty bomb being detonated by 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
As determined by reports from multiple reputable news outlets.
- A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device is a radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives.
- The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the dispersal agent/conventional explosion with radioactive material, serving primarily as an area denial device against civilians.
- It is not to be confused with a nuclear explosion, such as a fission bomb, which produces blast effects far in excess of what is achievable by the use of conventional explosives.
