Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.1%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète22 juin 25, 15:26 UTC22 juin 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump bomb Oman?
Manifold Marketswill a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
- Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count.
- Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
- This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world.
- This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization.
- I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 doit être résolu le 22 juin 2029.
- Comment Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.