KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleBarack Obama 6%+0.3%En tête parmi 24 options
Qualite du marche
91 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,4 k €
Liquidité
315,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
6.0% / 6.1%
Spread
1.7%
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
23 juil. 25, 14:001 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Barack Obama6%
Comparer les plateformes· John Brennan
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 36% | +8pt | 1,4 k € | 315,3 k € | il y a 21 minutes | |
 Polymarket76% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 28% | 0pt | 394,4 € | 196,6 k € | il y a 21 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Who will be arrested before 2027?
0.3%
+15.0%40%
-1.0%28%
20%
+21 résultats de plus
64 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total196,2 k €
Volume 24h394,4 €
POLYMARKETRègles
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$1.6k2 juil.25j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Trump out as President before 2027?
3,5 k €Oui: 7%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2029?
115,1 €Oui: 15.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
James Comey charges dropped by July 31?
0 €Oui: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
3,1 k €Oui: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIWill SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?
1,3 k €Oui: 3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Maduro Prison Time?
1,2 k €No prison time: 34%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
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If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.