Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?
One-OffGéopolitiqueManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 07:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.7%
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12
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 mars 24, 06:05 UTC2 janv. 24, 07:59 UTC
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This resolves after the next strategic (not tactical) nuclear bomb has been used in combat, and the circumstances surrounding its use are publicly known and mainly undisputed.
- If the entity who decided to use the bomb did so because they believed that another strategic nuclear bomb had just been used in combat, and that belief was mistaken, this market resolves YES.
- The mistake may be because of faulty sensors or any other reason.
- Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
- The resolution date will be extended as necessary.
- I may bet in this market.
