Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Matières premièresGéopolitiqueOne-Off8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.1%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard2 déc. 24, 02:19 UTC2 janv. 35, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
Manifold MarketsWill any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a confirmed theft of an operational nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union.
- While no terrorist group has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon to date, experts continue to monitor this threat.
- Building or acquiring a nuclear weapon requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are tightly controlled materials.
- Most nuclear power plants use low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if a terrorist group or individual successfully detonates a nuclear weapon (fission or fusion bomb) before January 1, 2035.
