Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
GéopolitiqueOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 02:01 UTC31 déc. 30, 01:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)