Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète13 mars 26, 03:45 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
New Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIs M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- A new Mersenne prime is discovered in 2026 if the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) discovers a new Mersenne prime number and the discovery is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
- The discovery date is when the prime is first verified as prime, not when it is announced.
- Resolution will be confirmed via the official GIMPS website at https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ or official GIMPS press releases.
- The most recent Mersenne prime, 2^136279841-1, was discovered on October 21, 2024, with 41,024,320 digits, eclipsing the previous record by more than 16 million digits.
- This is only the 52nd known Mersenne prime ever discovered.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria