Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 93.7%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète23 mars 26, 15:27 UTC1 janv. 31, 15:22 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWill a new mersenne prime be found in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- 52 Mersenne primes are known, with the largest known prime number being 2^136279841 − 1, which is a Mersenne prime.
- This market resolves YES if M136279841 is confirmed as the 52nd known Mersenne prime.
- Resolution can be verified at the official GIMPS website: https://www.mersenne.org/primes
- M136279841 was initially identified as probably prime on October 11, 2024 by an NVIDIA A100 GPU in Dublin, Ireland, and confirmed with a Lucas-Lehmer test on October 12 by an NVIDIA H100 in San Antonio, Texas.
- This number has 41,024,320 decimal digits and is over 16 million digits larger than the previous record prime number.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536,7 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria