Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePi is Transcendental 99.2%+0.2ptEn tête parmi 18 options
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+1.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
13 avr. 25, 20:42 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES for each theorem that is formally proven in Lean by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC.
- A theorem is considered "formally proven" when a complete, verified proof exists in the Lean theorem prover's main library or in a publicly accessible repository that has been merged or accepted by the Lean community.
- Lean is an open-source theorem prover and programming language.
- It allows mathematicians to formally verify proofs of mathematical theorems using computer assistance.
- The Lean Mathematical Library (mathlib) is a community-driven effort to formalize mathematics in Lean.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Pi is Transcendental à 99% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria