What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?
One-OffScienceSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Born in 2030 21.9%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 24, 16:47 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Each answer resolves to PROB, where PROB is the proportion of people that were born in the specified year that are still alive on 1 Jan 3000.
- They don't have to be basic unmodified humans, but there should be a wide agreement that yeah, that person is still alive in some form.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Born in 2030 à 22% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 3000.
- Comment What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Each answer resolves to PROB, where PROB is the proportion of people that were born in the specified year that are still alive on 1 Jan 3000.