Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
GéopolitiqueOne-OffScienceSociété et cultureManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60%
Prévisionnistes
96
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard15 janv. 23, 08:44 UTC1 janv. 60, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
