Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 57 minutes
En retard10 juin 22, 16:13 UTC2 juil. 32, 03:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill "Annoyingly Principled People, and what befall..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Sagrada Familia church be fully complete by EOY 2026, the 100th anniversary of Antoni Gaudi's death?
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketRègles
Scott recently wrote about Luria asking questions to some Uzbek peasants in the 1930s here:
- https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling?s=r
- The thing is, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks (after 80 years of mass literacy) are not exactly high in the IQ department TODAY -Kyrgyz scored around the equivalent of 75 on the 2009 PISA.
- Given it would be trivial for someone to visit Central Asia today (Kyrgyzstan would be easiest for a number of reasons), would Luria's observations replicate today? Resolves if someone travels to Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/southern Kazakhstan with this intention after I've posted this question and writes a detailed account of his observations.
- If the observations do not replicate Luria's at all, this question will resolve No. If they strongly replicate, it will resolve Yes.
- If it's a mixture, it will resolve to % on the basis of the agreement with Luria's observations.