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In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

One-OffScience Health & Medicine3a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 53.5%

Prévisionnistes

5

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 heure

En retard

15 avr. 26, 03:42 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?

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Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?

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Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075?

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Règles

Nectome is a brain preservation startup, comparable to cryonics.

They are currently debuting their services, which they claim to be much higher quality than other organizations, but they have yet to preserve any clients.
This market resolves to YES if, in 2029, Nectome publicly releases data or is independently verified to have achieved an ideal preservation rate of 75% or higher for its attempted preservations in the last 12 months or at least 10 total attempted preservations, whichever is higher.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
(Thus, in June of 2029, if Nectome releases a report indicating that they only had 2 clients that failed to fully perfuse, out of 20 total, that would resolve YES.
If they have a terrible 2027, but evidence shows they got their act together and had all 14 perfusions in 2029 go ok, that would also be YES.

Marchés ouverts

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2035+10.0pt85%
Before 2030+7.0pt83%
Before 2029+17.9pt50%

+2 résultats de plus

Volume total: 211 k €
Volume 24h: 110,5 k €

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

December 31+0.1pt4%
September 30+0.1pt1%
April 300%

+3 résultats de plus

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
Before 202812%
Before 20275%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total: 28,6 M €
Volume 24h: 21,3 k €

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No96%
Yes+1.9pt4%

Volume total: 1,6 M €
Volume 24h: 5,2 k €

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before October+64.0pt98%
before 2027+22.0pt98%
before December+30.0pt98%

+3 résultats de plus

When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?

Before 2035+4.0pt49%
Before 2030+18.0pt39%
Before 2032-9.0pt39%

+1 résultats de plus

Volume total

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved? sera-t-il résolu ?: In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
Comment In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Nectome is a brain preservation startup, comparable to cryonics.

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