Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète13 févr. 23, 18:26 UTC1 janv. 76, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRègles
The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead.
- For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month.
- For purposes of this market, successfully uploading the subject's mind digitally such that the subject is commonly believed to be conscious and retains ~50% or more of the memory function that they would have had at death is sufficient for a positive resolution.
- Companion Markets:
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2076.
- Comment Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead.