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Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
11 déc. 22, 03:13 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRègles
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming: