Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

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Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 66.6% au 26 octobre 2026.

Quand Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? sera-t-il résolu ?

Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.

Comment Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.

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KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?

• Minneapolis+4.0pt99.5%
• Miami-8.0pt86.5%
• West Palm Beach-5.0pt86.5%

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KALSHI

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 27, 2026?

• 60° to 61°79%
• 62° to 63°22%
• 64° to 65°0.5%

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Boston on Oct 27, 2026?

• 57° to 58°90.5%
• 59° or above8%
• 55° to 56°0.5%

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 27, 2026?

• 76° to 77°58.5%
• 74° to 75°34.5%
• 78° or above6%

KALSHI

When will Aspen Mountain open for the 26/27 winter season?

• Before Dec 6, 202698.5%
• Before Dec 13, 2026+1.0pt98.5%
• Before Nov 29, 2026+1.0pt

KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 28, 2026?

• Minneapolis94.5%
• Seattle89.5%
• West Palm Beach87%

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