Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
One-OffMétéo
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 66.1%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète11 déc. 22, 03:12 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiRègles
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
