Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète18 déc. 24, 05:20 UTC1 janv. 99, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItRègles
As of creation, this market has exactly a 50% chance of resolving YES and a 50% chance of resolving NO by January 1, 2099, by the following mechanism:
- Every year on January 1st, beginning 2025, I will resolve this market as YES with a probability of p=0.009199=1-0.5^(1/75).
- If on January 1, 2099, after the last resolution attempt, the market is not yet resolved, it will resolve as NO.
- Since there are 75 such attempts, the probability of resolving NO is exactly (1-p)^75 = 0.5, because that's the probability that the market does not resolve as YES in all 75 attempts.
- This is an experiment in prediction markets.
- As this market evolves, I will reveal some results in the theory of prediction markets which I hope will convince some folks to change their trading strategy.
