Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2029 68.5%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète24 sept. 25, 16:43 UTC31 déc. 30, 16:38 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?
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Manifold MarketsCoinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
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KalshiAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Each year is resolved to the percentage of goals below achieved by AI-rendered games:
- The game is winnable.
- The game must have any win condition - some kind of task that a player must complete to win.
- If the task is just walking to a goal - considered 50% achieved.
- The game has 10+ hours of gameplay.
- Requires (1), will be estimated based on casual playthrough videos and reporting.