base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 pt (24h)1a

December 31, 2027

+5.5pt56.8%

June 30, 2027

-0.5pt34.2%

December 31, 2026

8.1%

+3 resultados más

Alta calidad (82)Spread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total7,9 M US$

Volumen 24h92,5 mil US$

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3.5 pt (24h)1a

$500M

-0.5pt59%

$1B

-3.5pt46%

$2B

43%

+7 resultados más

Calidad media (62)Spread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad

Volumen total749,6 mil US$

Volumen 24h336 US$

POLYMARKET

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

94.4%

Sí

5.6%

Pronóstico comunitario55 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 3 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 7 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario74 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 8 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario58 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 8 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 8 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario19 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 13 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario4 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 15 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario9 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Sí

67.8%

32.2%

Pronóstico comunitario15 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 14 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 4 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

53%

Sí

47%

Pronóstico comunitario15 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario11 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 17 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

98.1%

Sí

1.9%

Pronóstico comunitario49 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 4 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario145 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

90%

Sí

10%

Pronóstico comunitario46 pronosticadoresTipo: binary

hace 23 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario49 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 2 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario5 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 23 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario37 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

ayer

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 11 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario17 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 4 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

21d

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario13 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario2 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 20 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

0.2 pt (24h)3m

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario26 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

ayer

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario10 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 14 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

7.5 pt (24h)3m

$12,000-$13,999

+7.5pt32.2%

$14,000-$15,999

+4.1pt18.1%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.7pt16.9%

+3 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario10 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario78 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 21 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Pronóstico comunitario8 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 23 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 resultados más

Pronóstico comunitario102 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice

hace 2 horas

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Criptoactivos Relacionados

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")