Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualMenlo Park, CA 27.8%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado24 abr 26, 18:30 UTC1 oct 26, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Mercados abiertos
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 6,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 79,5 mil €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M-0.5pt59%
- $1B-4.0pt46%
- $2B43%
+7 resultados más
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+7.5pt32.2%
- $14,000-$15,999+4.1pt18.1%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.7pt16.9%
+3 resultados más
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 58,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 389,7 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volumen total
- 80 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 97,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Where will I live in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Menlo Park, CA al 28% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Where will I live in October 2026??
- Está previsto que Where will I live in October 2026? se resuelva el 1 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Where will I live in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.