Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffIA4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 16 jul 2026, 17:10 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

Líder entre 7 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 días

Desactualizado

29 ago 24, 15:5831 dic 30, 18:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

OpenAI25%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Tendencia de volumen

$23

15 jul2d de datos16 jul

Mercados Relacionados

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1 mil €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Sí: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5,4 mil €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3,2 mil €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254,5 mil €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$64,507.44+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.50+1.50%

SolanaSOL$74.94+1.38%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.51%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.97%

BNBBNB$570.44+0.87%

Noticias Relacionadas

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Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Reglas

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffIA4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 16 jul 2026, 17:10 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

Líder entre 7 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 días

Desactualizado

29 ago 24, 15:5831 dic 30, 18:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

OpenAI25%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Tendencia de volumen

$23

15 jul2d de datos16 jul

Mercados Relacionados

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1 mil €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Sí: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5,4 mil €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3,2 mil €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254,5 mil €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$64,507.44+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.50+1.50%

SolanaSOL$74.94+1.38%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.51%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.97%

BNBBNB$570.44+0.87%

Noticias Relacionadas

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Reglas

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)