PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 72.3%-0.5pt
Calidad del mercado
82 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
28,6 mil €
Liquidez
49,2 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-5.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
24 jul 26, 21:54 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.