Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 87%
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado8 feb 24, 15:22 UTC1 ene 40, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
PolymarketWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurReglas
I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.
- If Zelensky is alive at this time, this market resolves as Yes.
- If he passes before then, this market resolves as No.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War??
- Está previsto que Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.