Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolíticaIAOne-OffEuropeRegulaciónChinaPolítica7aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.8%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 26, 14:41 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more international travelers to Japan in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Está previsto que Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2033.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.