Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopolíticaIAOne-OffEuropaRegulaciónChinaPolítica7a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 70%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 26, 14:41 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to: