Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
ChinaOne-OffCrimen y justicia3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 61%
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Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado12 dic 24, 15:49 UTC1 ene 30, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Taken seriously by the court
- Specifically cite global catastrophic risk, risk to humanity, or something equivalent
- May be against a company, person, or government
- Must be against a meaningful attempt to build AGI (current frontier labs count).
- A lawsuit that a government that isn't developing AGI isn't doing enough to govern it, doesn't count.
- Doesn't have to be in a US court, but China is excluded.
