Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRusia / Ucrania1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 84.1%
No 84.1%Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 25, 3:06 UTC2 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
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Will the military conflict cause release of nuclear material.
- This includes from damage to a nuclear plant or the accidental or intentional release of radiological material from a weapon (eg. "dirty bomb").
- This of course includes detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon.
- Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES only for direct causes from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically:
- Nuclear disasters caused by Ukraine, Russia, or other belligerent countries directly participating in the conflict
- Does not include indirect consequences such as nuclear proliferation to other countries as a result of the conflict