Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
GeopolíticaOne-OffEntretenimientoMúsicaRusia / Ucrania13a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 21:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4
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Desactualizado8 feb 24, 15:32 UTC16 feb 40, 4:59 UTC
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I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.
- I'll define autonomous drone swarms by the following criteria
- While they can be instructed by humans, the individual drones of the swarm have to act autonomously
- A "swarm" has to include five or more drones acting in concert
- A "drone" is an insect whose role it is to serve the hive's queen.
- I am not an entomologist so I am happy to receive feedback on this definition.
