Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRusia / Ucrania2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.2%
Pronosticadores
43
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado12 ago 23, 10:19 UTC1 ene 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct military operations in Afghanistan against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketReglas
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.