Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.4%
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41
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado12 ago 23, 10:19 UTC1 ene 27, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.