Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.1%
Pronosticadores
38
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado18 feb 26, 4:58 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.