Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffDeportesUS PoliticsChessMiddle East3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.6%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado30 oct 25, 2:41 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States conducts a nuclear weapons test before January 1, 2030.
- A nuclear test is defined as any explosive nuclear detonation, whether underground, underwater, or in the atmosphere.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Defense, or credible international monitoring sources such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
- The market resolves NO if no such test occurs by the deadline.
- The last underground nuclear test occurred on September 23, 1992.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 70% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria