Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Oriente MedioGeopolíticaOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.5%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado15 jun 25, 1:06 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).