Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.2%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado4 abr 26, 9:42 UTC31 dic 27, 10:38 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
- [link preview]
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 363 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 245,5 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Está previsto que Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.