LimitlessComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaAviso de calidad de datosSin precio significativo
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
August 31 50%Líder entre 4 opciones
August 31 50%Calidad del mercado
22 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconocidaDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
25 ago 26, 12:16 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies).
- Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services.
- Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity.
- Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Polymarket — Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? · December 31 13%
