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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPolíticaUS Politics6m
KalshiKalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Before 2027
Before 2027 10%
Líder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado

44 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

47,3 €

Liquidez

8,4 mil €

Liquidez media
Compra / Venta

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Spread amplio
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 minutos

11 dic 25, 22:001 ene 27, 4:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Resultado elegido

Before 202710%

Reglas

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Activos Sensibles al Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,613.02+2.07%EthereumETH$1,648.07+1.25%SolanaSOL$64.97+1.33%

Mercados Relacionados

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100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Sí: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
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How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

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Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

0,4 €
Sí: 20%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

0 €
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Activos en estos temas

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+1.52%XRPXRP$1.11+0.27%BNBBNB$594.47+1.52%CardanoADA$0.1657+3.31%HyperliquidHYPE$55.59+0.31%AvalancheAVAX$6.57+0.82%

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Reglas

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.