Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 86.6%
Pronosticadores
124
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado19 may 23, 5:12 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
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PolymarketReglas
Los criterios de resolución aún no están disponibles para este mercado. Las próximas actualizaciones completarán esta sección cuando se hayan guardado las reglas de la fuente.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 512,6 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 266,5 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 56,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 170,4 mil €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.