Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
GeopolíticaOne-OffSpaceChina3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 64.6%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado1 ene 26, 6:30 UTC31 dic 29, 15:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria