Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
GeopolíticaMonthlyTecnologíaChina2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.4%
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 54 minutos
Retrasado26 dic 25, 17:09 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.
- A material restriction includes any of the following:
- Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;
- A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;
- The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.
