Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTecnología4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 96.2%
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado9 feb 24, 13:39 UTC1 mar 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the German State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
- Different years:
- @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon (this question)
- @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon-4f9456e9a05e
- Different countries:
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Está previsto que Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? se resuelva el 1 de marzo de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.