Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 46.3%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado10 jul 26, 15:18 UTC1 ene 27, 0:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance