Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualMojtaba Khamenei 83.3%Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
54
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 26, 14:14 UTC1 ene 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.